Fibozachi - Superior Trading Indicators
Fibozachi - Superior Trading Indicators

Fibozachi - Superior Trading Indicators

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-    Fibozachi & Chopshop

  

*** Click here for additional information about the Fibozachi Forecast and for an explanation on how to use "Daily Confirmations"

 



Short Trade Candidates


DELL: DELL (Short-Term to Intermediate-Term)

Current Price:  15.03
Candlestick Patterns:  Filled White


Dell had rallied into last week, but now appears to have lost most of its bullish momentum.  An extremely narrow range, filled white candle registered within the trading range of last week.  Last week’s high of 15.20 also failed to push above the prior week’s high of 15.25, which will be our approximate stop for this trade.


Entry:  Immediate (with daily confirmation) or with a move below 14.83
Target (Short-Term):  14.00
Target (Long-Term):  12.75
Stop-Loss 15.27 or higher


Potential Risk:  $0.24
Potential Reward (Short-Term):  $1.03
Potential Reward (Long-Term):  $2.28
Risk: Reward Ratio:  1: 4.3 & 1: 9.5

 

DELL

 


 

NKE: NIKE (Intermediate-Term to Long-Term)

Current Price:  74.11
Candlestick Patterns:  Bearish Squeeze Alert, Filled White


NKE has closed higher for 8 consecutive weeks … a Fibonacci number that often coincides with cycles on both daily and weekly charts.  Interestingly, each of the last 2 weeks has been engulfed by the trading range of the week before, registering a “Bearish Squeeze Alert” candlestick pattern.  We are going to try to catch an intermediate to long-term top here, which has the potential for some large gains.  Be aware that the level 70.00 may provide strong support and delay a move down to 61 - 67.

Entry:  Immediate (with daily confirmation) or with a move below 72.78
Target (Short-Term):  66.62
Target (Long-Term):  60.89
Stop-Loss:  74.84 or higher


Potential Risk:  $2.06
Potential Reward (Short-Term) $6.16
Potential Reward (Long-Term):  $11.89
Risk: Reward Ratio:  1: 3  &  1: 5.8

 

NKE

 



PCLN: PRICELINE.COM (Short-Term to Long-Term)

Current Price:  257.00
Candlestick Patterns: Doji


PCLN registered a nearly perfect Doji by opening at 257.12 and closing at 257.00, a difference of 0.05%.  This may put a halt to the never-ending rally for the time being and the extremely narrow range of last week allows for an extremely tight stop with some juicy downside profit targets.  A break of the sharply rising trendline of support will likely have very bearish implications moving forward.

Entry:  Immediate (with daily confirmation) or with a move below 252.00
Target (Short-Term):  231.49
Target (Long-Term):  192.72
Stop-Loss:  263.00 or higher


Potential Risk:  $11.00
Potential Reward (Short-Term):  $20.51
Potential Reward (Long-Term):  $59.28
Risk: Reward Ratio:  1: 1.9  &  1: 5.4


PCLN

 



F: FORD MOTOR (Intermediate-Term to Long-Term)

Current Price:  12.69
Candlestick Patterns:  None


Ford’s rally has now carried from 1.01 to 14.54, which enables fantastic risk: reward trading setups for a longer-term trade.  The (sloppy) shooting star two weeks ago may have marked a multi-month high just shy of 15.00.  While Ford may not immediately plunge over the short-term, the price zone of 8.75 - 10.50 is likely to act as a “price magnet” once the bearish momentum picks up.

Entry:  Immediate (with daily confirmation) or with a move below 12.42
Target (Short-Term):  10.41 - 8.86
Target (Long-Term) 6.54
Stop-Loss:  13.29 or higher


Potential Risk:  $0.87
Potential Reward (Short-Term) $2.01 - $3.56
Potential Reward (Long-Term) $5.88
Risk: Reward Ratio 1: 2.3 - 4.1  &  1: 6.8

 

F

 



BIG: BIG LOTS (Short-Term to Long-Term)

Current Price:  36.82
Candlestick Patterns: None


BIG failed to grab a new high last week by 17 cents before proceeding a sell-off that picked up some bearish momentum by week’s end.  We are looking for a quick continuation move down to our first target at 33.70 - 34.00, but the ‘real’ support level and ideal profit target is 31.00 - 31.50.

Entry:  Immediate (with daily confirmation) or with a move below 35.80
Target (Short-Term):  31.39
Target (Long-Term):  28.50
Stop-Loss:  37.65 or higher


Potential Risk $1.85
Potential Reward (Short-Term):  $4.41
Potential Reward (Long-Term)$7.30
Risk: Reward Ratio:  1: 2.4  &  1: 4


BIG

 



HD: HOME DEPOT (Short-Term to Long-Term)

Current Price 32.20
Candlestick Patterns:  None


Home Depot appears to have met some resistance at 33.00 and now offers a nice risk: reward trade setup after 3 weeks of consolidation.  While the 31.00 level may initially provide support, it is likely to eventually give way for a move back down to 27.50 - 29.50.

Entry:  Immediate (with daily confirmation) or with a move below 31.96
Target (Short-Term) 29.44
Target (Long-Term) 27.19
Stop-Loss:  32.89 or higher


Potential Risk $0.93
Potential Reward (Short-Term)$2.52
Potential Reward (Long-Term) $4.77
Risk: Reward Ratio 1: 2.7  &  1: 5.1


HD

 



HAS: HASBRO (Intermediate-Term to Long-Term)

Current Price 38.35
Candlestick Patterns:  None (almost a Shooting Star)


Toys are looking ‘toppy’ here … last week almost registered a Shooting Star candlestick pattern, while plotting an intra-week high of 39.59.  This looks like a great spot for a FNH (Failed New High) to occur; just below the August ‘08 highs at 41.68.  A reversal here is likely to head back down to support at 36.00, but both support and a large unfilled gap remain at 32.75.  It may take some time, but this gap will be filled.

Entry:  Immediate (with daily confirmation) or with a move below 38.10
Target (Short-Term):  35.80
Target (Long-Term) 32.75
Stop-Loss 39.23 or higher


Potential Risk:  $1.13
Potential Reward (Short-Term):  $2.30
Potential Reward (Long-Term) $5.35
Risk: Reward Ratio1: 2  &  1: 4.7


HAS

 



MAT: MATTEL (Intermediate-Term to Long-Term)

Current Price:  22.61
Candlestick Patterns:  None


Interestingly, Mattel’s chart is very different from that of Hasbro; yet, both suggest that a top may be in for the ‘toymakers’.  MAT registered a bearish Harami two weeks ago and followed it up with a sell-off into the end of last week.  While it is possible that a small reflexive bounce or some sideways consolidation may occur over the next week or two, any increase in bearish momentum from this point ought to send shares back towards initial support at 21.00, with 19.00 as the next stop.

Entry:  Immediate (with daily confirmation) or with a move below 22.49
Target (Short-Term):  21.05
Target (Long-Term):   19.07
Stop-Loss23.48 or higher


Potential Risk $0.97
Potential Reward (Short-Term) $1.44
Potential Reward (Long-Term):  $3.42
Risk: Reward Ratio:  1: 1.5  &  1: 3

 

MAT

 



Long Trade Candidates


UNG:  NATURAL GAS ETF (Short-Term to Long-Term)


Current Price:  7.35
Candlestick Patterns None (almost a Bullish Harami)


UNG put in a bullish engulfing, wide-range candle last Friday, which may very well mark an swing low over the next several months.  The weekly candle almost registered a Bullish Harami candlestick pattern; however, the trading range was larger than last week’s, thereby invalidating a ‘true’ pattern.  Nevertheless, it appears that a Fibonacci-based, 13-week High-to-Low cycle may play out and finally lead to the reversal that so many traders have been awaiting.


Entry:  Immediate (with daily confirmation) or with a move above 7.42
Target (Short-Term):  8.50 – 9.00
Target (Long-Term):  11.00
Stop-Loss:  6.79 or higher


Potential Risk $0.63
Potential Reward (Short-Term) $1.08 - $1.58
Potential Reward (Long-Term)$3.58
Risk: Reward Ratio:  1 : 1.7 - 1: 2.5  &  1: 5.7


UNG

 



CNX: CONSOL ENERGY (Short-Term)

Current Price:  44.06
Candlestick Patterns:  Bullish Harami


While most energy stocks are looking bullish heading into next week, CNX’s trade setup looks ideal for a short-term pop over the next few weeks.  If our entry price triggers, it is likely that CNX will push up towards 48.00, which is near the 50% retracement of the previous decline from roughly 55 to 42.  However, a recent gap remains unfilled between 51.00 and 52.50 and CNX may be able to grab it with one last bullish push before the buyers completely exhaust themselves.

Entry:  Immediate (with daily confirmation) or with a move above 44.26
Target (Short-Term) 48.00
Target (Long-Term):  52.56
Stop-Loss 41.79 or lower


Potential Risk $2.47
Potential Reward (Short-Term) $3.74
Potential Reward (Long-Term) $8.30
Risk: Reward Ratio 1: 1.5  &  1: 3.4


CNX

 



AES: AES (Short-Term - Intermediate-Term)

Current Price:  11.30
Candlestick Patterns Bullish Harami


Another energy stock candidate, AES has been weak since the end of ’09 and after back-to-back hammers failed to produce a reversal 4 weeks ago, last week’s picture-perfect Bullish Harami managed to find support at 10.75.  Energy stocks tend to have great volatility, so if this trade works we expect to hit our targets without too much delay or consolidation. 

Entry:  Immediate (with daily confirmation) or with a move above 11.37
Target (Short-Term) 12.50
Target (Long-Term) 14.24
Stop-Loss 10.64 or lower


Potential Risk $0.73
Potential Reward (Short-Term) $1.13
Potential Reward (Long-Term) $2.87
Risk: Reward Ratio:  1: 1.6  &  1: 3.9


AES

 


 

FE: First Energy (Short-Term - Intermediate-Term)

Current Price:  39.40
Candlestick Patterns Bullish Harami


After an intense 7-week sell-off that began on January 1st, 2010, First Energy has moved sideways in a consolidation phase for the last 7 weeks.  If there is going to be any bounce or upward retracement, it is likely to take place sooner than later.  Last week’s Bullish Harami may prove to be the kick-off point for a short-term rally.  Like other energy stocks highlighted, this is another fantastic risk: reward trade setup.

Entry:  Immediate (with daily confirmation) or with a move above 39.58
Target (Short-Term) 41.57
Target (Long-Term) 44.79
Stop-Loss 38.29 or lower


Potential Risk $1.29
Potential Reward (Short-Term) $1.99
Potential Reward (Long-Term) $5.21
Risk: Reward Ratio:  1: 1.5  &  1: 4


FE

 


 

MFE: McAfee (Short-Term - Intermediate-Term)

Current Price:  40.17
Candlestick Patterns Mirror Doji ( top & bottom shadow are of equal length )


Every 3-4 weeks, McAfee exhibit’s the kind of volatility that trader’s dream of;  so long as they are on the right side of things.  Though the 42.00 level may provide early resistance (thereby resulting in just a 3% gain), there are an overwhelming amount of short-term bullish divergences, which could result in an extended move towards 45.00.   

Entry:  Immediate (with daily confirmation) or with a move above 40.72
Target (Short-Term) 42.00
Target (Long-Term) 45.50
Stop-Loss 39.85 or lower


Potential Risk $0.32
Potential Reward (Short-Term) $1.28
Potential Reward (Long-Term) $4.78
Risk: Reward Ratio:  1: 4  &  1: 14.9


MFE

 


 

QID: UltraShort QQQQ (Short-Term - Intermediate-Term)

Current Price:  16.78
Candlestick Patterns Doji, Hollow Red


Yes … one of the  ‘longs’ is a leveraged inverse of the QQQQ.  This is for those who do not have the ability to short stocks in their brokerage accounts and, instead, must rely on inverse ETF’s in order to achieve the same effect.  This one is plain and simple folks … while the Q's eeked out a new low last week by just 6 cents they still managed to close higher than the week’s open.  We have a great opportunity to catch a HUGE move here, while only risking a 3.7% loss if we are wrong. 

Entry:  Immediate (with daily confirmation) or with a move above 17.04
Target (Short-Term) 18.27
Target (Long-Term) 20.10 - 22.15
Stop-Loss 16.38 or lower


Potential Risk $0.66
Potential Reward (Short-Term) $1.23
Potential Reward (Long-Term) $3.06 - $5.11
Risk: Reward Ratio:  1: 1.9  &  1: 4.6 - 1: 7.7


QID

 


Disclosure: no position in the securities mentioned at the time of publication.  During any given session, we may trade any instrument bi-directionally.



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