Fibozachi - Superior Trading Indicators
Fibozachi - Superior Trading Indicators

Fibozachi - Superior Trading Indicators

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Short Trade Candidates

 

AHT: Ashford Hospitality (Intermediate-Term to Long-Term)

 

Current Price9.30

Candlestick Patterns Deliberation (Bearish)

 

Having rallied 71% over the past eight weeks (64.6% on close), Ashford has paused on the daily and appears ripe for a pullback.  While price action has been explosive over the past month, the past nine daily closes have each hovered slightly above round number 9 as internal measures of volume-tick momentum have considerably cooled.  The last three daily sessions have plotted bearish candlestick patterns: 4/28, harami cross; 4/29, tweezer top; and 5/30, gravestone doji. 

 

EntryImmediate (with daily confirmation) or with a move below 9.04

Target (Intermediate-Term)7.00

Target (Long-Term)6.22

Stop-Loss9.67 or higher

Potential Risk:  $0.63

Potential Reward (Intermediate-Term)$2.04

Potential Reward (Long-Term)$2.82

Reward: Risk Ratio3.2  &  4.5

 

AHT

 



CMI: Cummins (Short-Term to Long-Term)

 

Current Price72.23

Candlestick Patterns3 Outside Up

 

Last Monday, CMI opened with a small gap higher in anticipation of earnings; Tuesday's report helped produce another gap higher on exceptional volume; Wednesday and Thursday bull flagged higher still; and Friday essentially plotted a bearish engulfing candle that held Tuesday's low by six cents.  With 24.5 million shares traded last week, CMI saw the most volume transacted since 30 million shares were traded the week of 3/06/09 between 18.34 - 22.38.  While Cummins has ran 70.4% higher over the past thirteen weeks (59.9% on close), nimble traders with an eye for failure candidates ought keep one on Cummins for a mid-week bounce attempt that would ideally plot a failed new high around 74 and change. 

 

EntryImmediate (with daily confirmation) or with a move below 70.00

Target (Short-Term)57.20

Target (Long-Term)45.51

Stop-Loss77.07 or higher

Potential Risk$7.07

Potential Reward (Short-Term)$12.80

Potential Reward (Long-Term)$24.49

Reward: Risk Ratio1.8  &  3.5

 

CMI

 


 

ARCC: Ares Capital (Short-Term to Intermediate-Term)

 

Current Price15.86

Candlestick PatternsNone
 

Rallying since early February, ARCC registered a key reversal bar last week that may be the beginning of a multi-week sell-off.  Though every key reversal bar does not lead to immediate weakness, those occurring after extensive rallies enjoy an increased likelihood of success.  And while a possible long-term target spans February's swing low just above 11, the coming weeks could see price drop into the support zone of 13.40 - 14.30.  

 

EntryImmediate (with daily confirmation) or with a move below 15.62

Target (Short-Term):  14.32

Target (Intermediate-Term):  13.41

Stop-Loss16.56 or higher

Potential Risk:  $0.94

Potential Reward (Short-Term):  $1.30

Potential Reward (Intermediate-Term)$2.21

Reward: Risk Ratio1.4  &  2.4

 

ARCC

  


  

EL: Estee Lauder (Short-Term to Intermediate-Term)

 

Current Price65.92

Candlestick PatternsNone

 

Last week's price action within Estee Lauder exhibited a few interesting nuances.  Though a bearish engulfing pattern did not register (real body wasn't engulfed), it was still an "outside week" where range completely engulfed the previous week's range.  The five previous sessions saw price drop more than any week since last September as volume ran well above-average; an indication that profits are being taken and supply is starting to outweigh demand.  The stop-loss for this trade is a bit 'loose', so plan on quickly scaling it down if entry is triggered and weakness ensues.

 

EntryImmediate (with daily confirmation) or with a move below 64.63

Target (Short-Term) 53.98

Target (Intermediate-Term):  50.05

Stop-Loss71.30 or higher

Potential Risk $6.67

Potential Reward (Short-Term):  $10.65

Potential Reward (Intermediate-Term)$14.58

Reward: Risk Ratio1.6  &  2.2

 

EL

  


  

CPX: Complete Production Services (Short-Term to Long-Term)

 

Current Price15.09

Candlestick PatternsNone

 

Though short, intermediate and long-term trends remain bullish, CPX may fall just shy of prior swing high resistance at 16.00 - 16.06.  Each of the last two weeks have demonstrated bearish 2-bar reversal setups ~ a long white body followed by a narrow-range candle with a large upper shadow.  This price pattern setup often results in an immediate pullback towards the midpoint of the long white body ... CPX's weakness may extend if last week's FNH (failed new high) persists, whereby less rigorous patterns would begin to come into focus for other traders (triple top / tower top / buddha top / head and shoulders).

 

EntryImmediate (with daily confirmation) or with a move below 14.65

Target (Short-Term):  12.50

Target (Long-Term):  11.00

Stop-Loss15.74 or higher

Potential Risk:  $1.09

Potential Reward (Short-Term)$2.15

Potential Reward (Long-Term):  $3.65

Reward: Risk Ratio2  &  3.4

 

CPX

 


 

Long Trade Candidates

 

NBG: National Bank of Greece (Short-Term to Intermediate-Term)

 

Current Price: 3.26

Candlestick PatternsNone

 

NBG has received a ton of recent attention, evidenced by explosive volume totals over the past month.  Average weekly volume has increased enormously over the past two months, with last week registering a new high of nearly 185,000,000 shares traded.  In due time, this volume explosion may be proven climactic.  For those looking long today, sellers appear exhausted in the short-term; as evidenced by the long lower shadow of last week's bullish key reversal.  Since last week's low is simply too far away for a stop-loss, a better alternative is using last week's open of 3.04.

 

EntryImmediate (with daily confirmation) or with a move above 3.39                             

Target (Short-Term) 4.06

Target (Intermediate-Term)4.50

Stop-Loss 3.03 or lower

Potential Risk:  $0.36 

Potential Reward (Short-Term)$0.67

Potential Reward (Intermediate-Term)$1.11

Reward: Risk Ratio1.9  &  3.1

 

NBG

  


  

AYE: Allegheny (Short-Term to Intermediate-Term)

 

Current Price21.78

Candlestick PatternsBullish Harami

 

With last week's bullish key reversal, AYE will likely remain within the swing range of 20.50 - 24.50.  If correct, this short-term trade setup should play out immediately; reaching 23+ within the next 2-3 weeks.  An initial stop-loss below 21.17 should be scaled up to 21.49 if entry triggers.

 

EntryImmediate (with daily confirmation) or with a move above 21.96                                                                                   

Target (Short-Term): 23.31

Stop-Loss21.17 or lower

Potential Risk:  $0.79                              

Potential Reward (Short-Term)$1.35

Reward: Risk Ratio1.7

 

AYE

 


  

CF: CF Industries Holdings (Short-Term to Intermediate-Term)

 

Current Price83.67

Candlestick PatternsNone

 

Upon first glance, the technical profile of CF doesn't appear very bullish.  However, last week registered a wide-range candle with a long lower shadow just above an upward sloping trendline of support and a series of higher highs and higher lows remains intact.  Although we highly doubt that CF will be making new highs, there is a good chance of a 2-6 week reflexive bounce back up towards resistance at 95 (where much larger, bearish patterns would develop, with speed limit targets).   Since last week's low is simply too far away for any prudent stop-loss, we suggest using one tick below last week's close of 83.67 upon entry. 

 

EntryImmediate (with daily confirmation) or with a move above 87.98

Target (Short-Term):  95.00

Stop-Loss83.66 or lower

Potential Risk:  $4.32

Potential Reward (Short-Term):  $7.02

Reward: Risk Ratio 1.6

 

CF

 


  

QID: UltraShort QQQQ (Short-Term to Long-Term)

 

Current Price15.96

Candlestick PatternsBullish Engulfing & Tweezer Bottom

 

Those who have been following the Fibozachi Forecast over the past month may recall a bullish QID setup from about five weeks ago.  As equity markets continued to rally, that QID setup was voided as our entry price was never triggered; price subsequently moved to new lows below our listed stop-loss.  Whenever we identify long / short trade setups, action is entirely dependent upon the suggested entry price being triggered.  When entry trigger does not occur, the end result is simply 'no harm, no foul, no trade.' And though the technical profile of a given issue may not immediately appear bullish / bearish, it will be if and when price manages to trigger our entry.  That said, after last week's bullish engulfing and tweezer bottom candlestick patterns, QID offers an excellent setup here.  If equity market weakness continues into Monday and Tuesday, then QID will push higher and trigger entry.  While the potential exists for a large move to 22+ in weeks ahead, the 18.25 level will likely serve as a strong 'price magnet'.

 

EntryImmediate (with daily confirmation) or with a move above 16.16

Target (Short-Term):  18.27

Target (Long-Term):  22.15

Stop-Loss15.11 or lower

Potential Risk:  $1.05

Potential Reward (Short-Term):  $2.11

Potential Reward (Long-Term):  $5.99

Reward: Risk Ratio2  &  5.7

 

QID

 


Disclosure: no position in the securities mentioned.  During any given session we may trade any instrument bi-directionally.



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